The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely wanting to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the effect of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay from the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the first half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to permit you to parlay first half to game. Should they do permit you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or to develop a potential win if you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In https://123win.cash/ , if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Therefore, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.