The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
link 789BET can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting it doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the first half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
Initially, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. By the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to let you parlay first half to game. If they do enable you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an opinion privately or the full total. Parlaying is another method to boost your potential win on these games, or to develop a potential win when you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Subsequently, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
In case you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the full total in the same game, because a lot more are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets for you to consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.