"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not know how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to fill in the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting w388 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of which you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a superb substitute for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the next bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have previously seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."